عنوان مقاله [English]
Schedules are major concerns in construction planning and management. The mutual interferences among construction activities of tunnels are complicated, which will affect scheduling to some degree. Ground condition and construction (excavation & support system) time and costs are key factors in decision making during the planning and design phase of a tunnel project.
In this work the DAT innovative methodology for the probabilistic estimation of ground condition and construction time and costs is used. As construction progresses, geologic information is checked based on the excavated part of the tunnel and, therefore, the uncertainty about this part of the tunnel will disappears. This new information can be used to update the geology condition of the tunnel in order to obtain more precise prediction for unexcavated part.
In this paper, an engineering application to Garan road tunnel is well presented to demonstrate how the ground conditions and the construction time and costs are updated during construction. Finally, the results of simulations for the initial prediction and the updated prediction will be compared in order to see how the construction time and costs distributions of the given tunnel are changed after the geologic updating.Finally, reducing of uncertainty about the construction time and costs is resulted. It facilitates both the owners and the contractors to be aware of the risk they should carry before construction of unexcavated part, and it is useful for both tendering and bidding.