نشریه مهندسی معدن

نشریه مهندسی معدن

تاثیر عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای بر شاخص‌های کلان بخش معدن ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد، رشته اقتصاد و تجارت الکترونیک، مؤسسه غیرانتفاعی عطار، مشهد، ایران
2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار علوم سیاسی، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق، علوم سیاسی و زبان‌های خارجی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مشهد، مشهد، ایران
چکیده
ضرورت کاهش وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و تامین بخش عمده‌ای از ارز مورد نیاز از طریق صادرات غیرنفتی روزبه‌روز بیشتر در کشور احساس می‌شود. در این راستا، توجه به بخش معدن به‌ دلیل برخورداری از ذخایر غنی از یک طرف و عضویت اخیر ایران در بازار بزرگ کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری شانگهای، می‌تواند راهکار مناسبی برای کاهش وابستگی یاد شده باشد. بنابراین، در این مطالعه به بررسی تاثیر عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای و کاهش تعرفه‌های تجاری میان ایران و سازمان یاد شده (تحت سناریوهای 25، 50 و 100 درصد)، بر متغیرهای کلان بخش معدن ایران از جمله: ارزش افزوده، صادرات، اشتغال و تشکیل سرمایه با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر منطقه‌ای مبتنی بر پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، داده‌های لازم از نسخه10 پایگاه اطلاعاتی GTAP استخراج شده و تجزیه‏وتحلیل داده‏ها با نرم‏افزار MATLAB انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که بطورکلی با کاهش تعرفه‌های تجاری بین ایران و سایر کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری شانگهای، متغیرهای کلان مورد بررسی بخش معدن ایران افزایش می‌یابد زیرا با کاهش تعرفه‌های تجاری میان ایران و کشورهای عضو شانگهای، ایران از ظرفیت‌های جدیدی بهره‌مند می‌شود که می‌تواند باعث کاهش فشارهای ناشی از تحریم‌های اقتصادی از سوی کشورهای غربی شود. علاوه بر این، کاهش تعرفه صنایع سنگین میان ایران و سازمان یاد شده، به ویژه چین و روسیه که جزو کشورهای پیشرو در زمینه تولید ماشین‌آلات معدنی‌اند، به‌واسطه تسهیل واردات ماشین‌آلات پیشرفته مورد نیاز بخش معدن، منجر به افزایش بهره‌وری و در نتیجه بهبود وضعیت متغیرهای کلان مورد بررسی در این بخش می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Effect of Iran's Membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Macro indicators of Iran's Mine Sector

نویسندگان English

Elham Sadeghi 1
Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard 2
Hamid Saeidi Javadi 3
1 M.Sc. in economics and e-commerce, non-profit Attar Institute, Mashhad, Iran
2 Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
3 Assistance Professor of Political Sciences, Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Law, Political, Language, Islamic Azad University Mashhad Branch, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده English

The necessity of reducing dependence on oil revenues and providing a major part of the required currency through non-oil exports is felt more and more in the country. In this regard, paying attention to the mining sector due to having rich reserves on the one hand and Iran's recent membership in the large market of the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, can be a suitable solution to reduce the aforementioned dependence. Therefore, in this study, the effect of Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and the aforementioned organization (under the scenarios of 25%, 50% and 100%) on the macro variables of Iran's mining sector, including: added value, export, employment and capital formation were analyzed using the regional computable general balance model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). For this purpose, required data were extracted from version 10 of GTAP database and data analysis was done with MATLAB software. The results showed that, in general, with the reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the macro variables investigated in Iran's mining sector increase. Because with the reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and Shanghai member countries, Iran will benefit from new capacities that can reduce the pressures caused by economic sanctions from Western countries. In addition, the reduction of heavy industry tariffs between Iran and the aforementioned organization, especially China and Russia, which are among the leading countries in the field of mining machinery production, by facilitating the import of advanced machinery needed by the mining sector, leads to an increase in productivity and as a result, macro variables are examined in this section.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Shanghai Cooperation Organization
mine sector
reduction of trade tariffs
regional general equilibrium model
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  • تاریخ دریافت 11 دی 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 11 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 18 مرداد 1404