نشریه مهندسی معدن

نشریه مهندسی معدن

شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی بخش معدن ایران با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه پژوهشهای صنعت، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهشهای بازرگانی، تهران، ایران
2 مربی، گروه پژوهشهای صنعت، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهشهای بازرگانی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
نیروهای پیشران کلیدی حوزه معدن و صنایع معدنی و نحوه برهم‌کنش این نیروها نقش به سزایی در شکل دادن آینده این حوزه دارند. در مقاله حاضر که با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری تدوین شده است، ابتدا پیشران‌های کلیدی حوزه معدن و صنایع معدنی ایران شناسایی و سپس اثرات متقاطع آن‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک تحلیل‌شده است. برای شناسایی نیروهای پیشران کلیدی ابتدا متون موجود شامل کتاب‌ها، مقالات، گزارش‌ها، اسناد و طرح‌ها مطالعه و فهرستی از پیشران‌های کلیدی استخراج و سپس با نظرخواهی از خبرگان و متخصصان با استفاده از مصاحبه و تکمیل پرسشنامه باز، پایش و ادغام عوامل مشابه و جمع‌بندی نظرات کارشناسانه تعداد 18 پیشران کلیدی شناسایی شد. پس از شناسایی نیروهای پیشران کلیدی، برای سنجش میزان تاثیرگذاری پیشران‌ها بر هم و تاثیرپذیری آن‌ها از یکدیگر ماتریس تاثیرات متقاطع طراحی شد و در اختیار خبرگان مورد نظر قرار گرفت. در نهایت پس از بررسی میزان و چگونگی تاثیر این پیشران‌ها بر یکدیگر، پیشران‌های تاثیرگذار، تاثیرپذیر و راهبردی معدن و صنایع معدنی در ایران که بیشترین تعامل را در سیستم دارند، شناسایی شدند. بر اساس تحلیل یافته‌های پژوهش و خروجی نرم‌افزار میک‌مک پیشران‌های «هوشمندسازی فرآیندهای معدنکاری»، «مدیریت بیشتر آب در فرآیندهای معدنکاری» و «افزایش تاثیر تغییرات شدید آب و هوایی بر عملیات معدنی» به‌عنوان پیشران‌های راهبردی شناسایی شدند..
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Identifying and Analyzing the Key Drivers of Mining Sector in Iran with Foresight Approach

نویسندگان English

Mohsen Keshavarz Turk 1
Mostafa Mohammadi 2
Maysam Bashiri 2
1 Assistant Professor, Industry Research Department, Trade Studies and Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
2 Instructor, Department of Industry Research, Trade Studies and Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

H The key driving forces of the mining sector and how these driving forces interact play a significant role in shaping the future of this sector. In the present article, which was prepared with a foresight approach, the key drivers of Iran's mining and mineral industries were identified first. Then, their cross-impact was analyzed using Micmac software. Firstly, the available texts, including books, articles, reports, documents, and plans, are studied to identify the key driving forces. A list of key driving forces is extracted. Then, by asking experts and specialists for their opinions by using interviews and completing an open questionnaire, monitoring and integrating similar factors, and summarizing experts' opinions, so 18 key drivers were identified. After identifying the key driving forces, the matrix of cross effects was designed and provided to the experts to measure the influence of driving forces on each other and their dependence on each other. Finally, after examining the extent and how these drivers affect each other, the influential, dependent, and strategic drivers of the mining sector in Iran, which have the most interaction in the system, were identified. Based on the analysis of the research findings and the output of Micmac software, the drivers of "intelligence of mining processes," "water management in mining processes," and "increasing the impact of extreme climate changes on mining operations" were identified as strategic drivers.ere.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Driving Force
Mining Sector
Foresight
Cross Impact Analysis
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دوره 18، شماره 61
زمستان 1402
صفحه 33-52

  • تاریخ دریافت 24 مهر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری 04 آذر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش 05 دی 1402